Playbook - Commodities
1. Check Macro Sentimental (eg. US election result)
2.Check Oil Trend (to spot pullback)
about 2 weeks trading commodities , it been up and down , it is hard to have consistant result
Saturday, January 9, 2021
Friday, January 1, 2021
1/1/2021 Half Financial year Trading Journal
My trading PnL was not great, i will need to improve :-
1. Increase Avg. Win and reduce Avg Lose
2.Win Rate need to be above 50%
3. Target Swing trade not holding more than 3 days, set stop loss
Thursday, December 31, 2020
31/12/2020 ASX:FMG
31/12/2020
-Trade: FMG , China
-Catalyst: Iron ore price drop on China appeal to cut steel output.
Setup: B - Volume was low, because year end holiday
Technical: ATH, looking for short
What I do : shorted at 24 on open, and the bidding price keep going up and holding the price steadily above 24, making it hard to close my short, decided to cover on scratch at 23.95. Was thinking about holding overnight but give up because of 3days interest. End up surprise closing match dropped 2.29% which no one can predict.
Verdict: Should hold for longer term
Wednesday, December 30, 2020
30/12/2020 ASX:IRI, WEB
30/12/2020
-Trade: IRI in news
-Catalyst: IRI earning downgrade, downtrend for the past month
Setup: B - Volume was low, because year end holiday
Technical: Downtrend, looking for short
What did I do: I watched the open as it tick up from 2.81 to 2.83 thinking it was going higher, but uncertain it will bound back.
Short on 2.69 on 2:43pm as I watched the price didnt break 2.7 which should be the key level from the low 2.61. Closed on 2.65 , which should have stick to my 2.62 price... I think it will go lower tomorrow on 31/12/2020 (not buyer support)
Better?
Should short the morning from 2.8 ,was a good fade
ASX:WEB
-Trade: WEB was overbrought on 29/12/2020; macro US market is weak, pending stimulus news
-Catalyst: no catalyst
Setup: C- I shorted in the morning on 5.26 ( bad entry)
Technical: was looking for correction thinking it will go to 5.16, looking for short
What did I do: I short on open as it tick up to 5.26 (bad entry) thinking yesterday close on 5.32 was too high.. straight after my entry WEB shoot up to 5.33. stonk effect is working . End up close at 5.23 as the support is too strong
What I should do : I should short APT and SZL, as there is more meat to drop.
31/12/2020
Verdict: WEB dropped on market weak 31/12/2020 on open to 5.23 and dropped more on 12pm to 5.09 :- should keep to my thesis...
Sunday, November 1, 2020
1/11/2020 Trading Edges (November Goal)
I am writing this to remind myself about the setup i should be looking at.
Basically 12pm lunch time, look out for intraday high volume trading
a) Oversold, buy for bounce or next day.
b)Week support, short for overnight fall.
Keep it simple will be November month ongoing trade , to keep my discipline
Goal to clear out my current holding.
Update - cleared my current position
cut loss on NUF but it was moving north after I cut ... bummer
Monday, October 26, 2020
26/10/2020 ASX:TYR
TYR
-Trade: I was looking for a trade thought TYR been lower for 3 days; TYR was on watchlist,
-Catalyst: TYR oversold , potential bound back
Setup: C. Oversold. Trading week low
Technical: Downtrend, looking for reversal
Hold another 2 day, if still no reversal will required to cut loss
26/10/2020 ASX:SBM
SBM
-Trade: SBM was on watchlist, been trending down for 1 week.
-Catalyst: SBM oversold , potential bound back;
Setup: C. Oversold. Trading near week low; if dow jone red, Gold might go up
Technical: Downtrend, looking for reversal;
What did I do: I queue lower on 2.75, I was hoping for overnight bounce in a day or 2.
To update : closing price
Sunday, October 25, 2020
12/10/2020 ASX:NUF
NUF
-Trade: I was looking for a trade after closing a big lost on closing RBL short. NUF was on watchlist, been trending down since june.
-Catalyst: NUF oversold
Setup: C. Oversold. Trading near month low
Technical: Downtred, looking for reversal
What did I do: I buy on 3.96, I was hoping for overnight bounce in a day or 2.
My mistake is cutting when price trending lower...
Better?
Looking back now on trade, should close position when NUF bounce back on 3.95. Unless there is new catalyst , hardly see any reason of reversal. but still holding.
The price is now 4.26 on 22/11/2020 , cant predict future....
23/10/2020 ASX ILU, CCX
ILU
-Trade: Afternoon lunch found on twitter some other trader posted trade on ILU, checked the price was 5.26 , dropped 47% percent
-Catalyst: ILU oversold , potential bound back; DDR demerger spin off, and the value calculated give ILU at least low 6 to high 5.
Setup: B. Oversold . Trading near intraday low
Technical: Aud 10 prev high.
What did I do: I have no background on the 48% drop, I was hopping for an afternoon bound back
Brought on 5.26, not queing for lower price. I was afraid it will start climbing higher. after I brought , the price keep going lower. My mistake is not queing for lower price. Holding into weekend. Hoping Monday will bound back if dow jones close green on friday.
Better?
Should queue lower price
Verdict:
26/10/2020 - Retail stock slump, dow jones future red; Sold at 5.32 close position on small profit to cover cost
CCX
-Trade: Afternoon lunch found on CCX price on new low 2.83,
-Catalyst: CCX oversold, CCX US acquisition rejected. potential bound back
Setup: B. Oversold . Trading near intraday low,
Technical: Aud 3.6 prev high on Aug.
What did I do: I have no background on the 48% drop, I am having previous 2 trade on CCX earning on before closing bounce, I was hoping for the same pattern
Better?
Looking back I will still buy it, the value is there, potential bounce, the risk is if dow jone red on friday. the following week will trending down.
Update on 26/10/2020
Monday unpredicted Retail stock slump, dropped 6% ; still holding waiting for breakeven
Verdict closed on 28/10/2020 , it up 7% , consider lucky to cut loss with 24 aud
I have read the playbook by mike bellafiore. I decided to start putting up my trading journal to hold myself accountable. I hope by documenting this will bring more improvement on my future trading.
Tuesday, January 8, 2019
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